Real Estate Alliance

THE EVER EXPANDING COMMUTER BELT — WHERE DOES IT END?

In the last 10 years, commuter belts have become a major feature of everyday life around our major cities especially Dublin and Cork. This commuter �phenomenon�, which has been commonplace worldwide for many years, has been accelerated in Ireland in recent times by a number of factors. Namely our very young population (as a result of the �baby boom� of the 70�s) looking for homes and even more importantly, the huge economic strides we have made a as a country in recent years.

Why are people moving out of our cities, especially the Capital? - It�s not rocket science! Cheaper property prices and a perceived higher quality of living are the two main attractions. A three bed semi-detached house in Ballinteer will cost in the region of �450,000 whereas a similar property on the commuter belt for example, Newbridge will cost circa �270,000. A two bedroom apartment in Leopardstown will cost approximately �400,000 whereas a two bed apartment in Navan will cost from �200,000. So you can see that price is obviously a factor but also some people feel rightly or wrongly that living outside the city can offer a safer and healthier environment for bringing up a family with not as much crime, more open spaces and possibly more community interaction.

What is important to the commuter today is speed. How quickly can I get from my front door to my place of work? There are twice as many cars on the roads today as there were 15 years ago, therefore traffic can move a lot slower today. On the other hand, there are a number of new motorway�s and dual carriageway�s around the capital. This ultimately makes the Capital more accessible. In a nutshell all that matters to today�s commuters, whether your mode of transport is bus, train, bicycle or car is how quickly you can get there. There are areas, which may be 30 miles from Dublin City Centre, which are less popular with commuters than somewhere 45 miles from the City Centre because the speed and accessibility to the City Centre is far superior. Whether it is a case of a poor road network or bad rail connections, the bottom line is speed. The average commuter will spend 15 hours a week in the car. This is why all along the National routes, N1 � N11, people have moved away from the city and are residing along these arteries. The more improvements that take place to the infrastructure, the quicker they will get to work and the further out from Dublin they will move.

So where are the commuters going at present? Looking at the Dublin commuter belt we can draw a circle from Kells, to Castlepollard on to Mullingar, Kinnegad, Kilbeggan, Portlaoise Carlow & Gorey. At present these would be seem to be the outer limits of the Greater Dublin commuter belt. These boundaries are changing all the time and have been moving further from the capital year on year. It is really only since the N7 was upgraded last year by-passing Kildare town and Monasterevin, that Portlaoise became a viable residential option for the commuter (Portlaoise is 80kms from Dublin).

These boundaries are not cut in stone and there are commuters who are moving beyond these areas. Most of these people will be in a situation to do so as they may have more flexible jobs e.g. they are not confined to travelling at peak times, for example nurses and shift workers. As we all know journey times tend to at least double during rush hours.

If we look at our second city, Cork, and carry out a similar analysis, we draw a circle North of Cork from Mitchellstown, south-westerly to Mallow, to Macroom to Kinsale and south-easterly from Mitchellstown to Youghal. A comparison of prices shows a three bed semi-detached in Douglas, a very popular residential area in the city will set you back approximately �300, 000 whereas a similar property in Fermoy about 35kms away on the Dublin road will cost in the region of �210,000. A two bed apartment in the city centre will cost �300,000 whereas in Mallow 32kms away it will only cost �200,000.

It would seem however at this time that the Cork commuter is not quite ready to travel as far as their Dublin counterparts to their place of work. A major reason for this is population as Cork city is significantly smaller and therefore there are less demands on building land. The population of Cork city and it�s environs is 400,000 whereas in Dublin it is about 1.5million. No doubt it will be only a matter of time before the situation in the "People�s Republic" is quite similar to the capital. The Fermoy bypass is under construction at present and this needless to say will attract even more commuters over the coming years. There are also plans for a northern ring road but it will be some time before its construction.

Another determining factor in Ireland along with the road network is the rail network or lack of it. This has been gradually improving in recent years expanding to most of the surrounding commuter towns in the Greater Leinster area. The Arrow Rail has proved increasingly popular with more and more trains at peak times. Meath, however, the fastest expanding county in Ireland, is suffering as it is serviced very poorly by the rail network. The Dublin/Belfast line flirts with the county border at Bettystown/Laytown and there are some proposals in the pipeline to improve the situation. The reopening of the Dunboyne line which could service places like Trim, Navan, Kells etc. would be a move in the right direction but this would seem to be a medium to long term project. In Cork more and more people are choosing to live in the Cobh and Mallow areas because of the improving rail service from these areas. There are proposals also to re-open the Midleton line in the coming years.

By and large, it would seem that at this juncture we are more or less at the outermost boundaries in relation to the Dublin commuter belt. This is taking into account any infrastructural improvements that are currently proposed in the general area. Similar to London, say 15 years ago, I would project that these areas inside the boundaries will become more densely populated both on an urban and rural scale with the relevant County Councils and planning authorities coming under increasing pressure to endeavour to keep control of the situation This is not to say that in 15-20 years time that people will find it acceptable to commute from say Waterford to Dublin or Cork on a daily basis. There are, however, only 24 hours in every day.