Three-bed semi prices will rise by 3pc in 2024, estate agents nationally are predicting.
A record shortage of supply has driven a 1.5pc rise in the last three months in the capital, but only in houses under a certain price, the Q4 REA Average House Price Index found.
House prices in Dublin and the other cities outpaced Ireland’s large towns and commuter counties as mortgage approved buyers chase properties within their price ceiling.
The REA Average House Price Index concentrates on the actual sale price of Ireland's typical stock home, the three-bed semi, giving an accurate picture of the second-hand property market in towns and cities countrywide.
The actual selling price of a three-bed, semi-detached house across the country rose by 1pc in the final quarter of 2023 to €304,259 – representing an annual increase of 4.3pc.
Time taken to reach sale agreed nationally is steady at five weeks as low supply continues to drive sales in an increasing interest rate environment.
Prices in Dublin city rose by 1.5pc in the last three months, meaning that the average three-bed semi in the capital is now selling at €511,667 – an increase of 3pc in the last year.
“Dublin is becoming a two-tier market, with the average house price proving to be an affordability ceiling,” said REA spokesperson, Barry McDonald.
“While our agents predict an average 1% increase across 2024, this varies according to prices in their immediate area.
“Agents on the west side of Dublin recorded notable increases in Q4, with Lucan prices rising by €20,000 to €435,000 (4.8pc) and Tallaght increasing by 3.5pc to €290,000.
“In areas such as Rathcoole (€335,000, 1.4%) the market is chasing affordability, and a scarce supply of properties has been selling at a faster pace.
“However, while these agents are predicting rises of 3-5pc in 2024, areas where prices are above the average Dublin price showed little to no growth in Q4 and are forecasting price falls in the next 12 months.
“Across the country, agents are reporting no let-up in demand, but a supply of stock which is at an all-time low.”
Mortgage-approved first-time buyers are still the main market drivers, with 59pc of sales nationally – a figure that rises dramatically to over 80pc in commuter counties such as Meath as they hunt suitably priced properties.
Cities outside Dublin experienced a 1.73pc rise in the past three months to an average selling price of €323,000 – with the annual rate of increase of 4.5pc.
Prices in Cork increased by 1.4pc in the past three months – a 4pc annual rise to €370,000 with agents O’Donoghue and Clarke predicting the same again in 2024.
Galway prices rose slightly in the quarter by 0.6pc to €337,000, with agents predicting an unchanged scenario in the coming year.
While prices in Limerick City rose by €5,000 in the final quarter to €290,000, Waterford City saw double that increase with average house prices rising to €295,000.
Homes in the commuter belt showed the most stability in 2023, rising by just 2.2pc to €319,722, with counties within travelling distance of the capital recording growth of just 0.2pc in the past three months.
The biggest annual rise came in large towns nationwide, which rose by 6.6pc annually and 1.2pc in the quarter to €223,638.
Waterford county experienced the highest annual price rises in the country in 2023, with a 14% increase to €245,000 recorded.
With homes reaching sale agreed in six weeks, down from eight in Q3, local agents REA Spratt are predicting a further 8pc increase in 2024 – the joint highest prediction across the survey, alongside Cavan.